How to Predict the Conversion Value of Keywords for SEO

Filed in Web Analytics | Web Site Planning | Web Strategy | Web Usability Leave a comment

Posted by keshavbhandari

The word “success” is a farsighted and ambiguous term when it comes to the search engine optimization world. Keyword placements are not guaranteed in the SERPs, nor is there an easy way to go about measuring the subsequent conversion value from those keywords (more so after Google’s “not provided” update).

Think about it: After conducting a thorough keyword research analysis of your business, you manage to narrow down your monster list to a very refined set of queries; queries that you spent countless hours on, critiquing relentlessly from all possible angles of opportunity — search volumes, competition levels, SERP topics, business relevance, etc.

Then, your boss fatuously asks you, “Why not choose this keyword instead?” And to complicate matters even more, your digital marketing agency offers its own portfolio of keywords that they believe would be highly profitable to your business.

Now comes the hard part, the decision. Who is right? How would your keyword selection impact your business? Are you willing to throw thousands of dollars and wait for five months (if not more) to go after your keyword selection, praying for the best possible outcome?

Or you can be smart about it and confidently bolster your decision with proof of data.

Let’s consider a more specific example:

Say we’re a secondhand automotive dealer and we have narrowed down our keyword research list to these four queries:


Monthly Searches

Suggested Bid

Difficulty Index

Current Position

Used car dealerships





Second-hand cars





Cheap cars for sale





Used SUV for sale





This is a perfect example of a dilemma that any SEOer faces while doing keyword research.

  1. The first keyword, “used car dealerships” — “Ah, that search volume looks so juicy! We’re not doing terribly bad. Only if we can push forward a few more paces, we’d be swarmed with web traffic. However, with great search volume comes even fiercer competition.”
  2. The next one, “second-hand cars”— “Oh boy! We’re already on the second page and the competition level seems doable. Hmm, but the search volume is not nearly comparable to the first one.”
  3. Third, “cheap cars for sale”— “This is another interesting one. But we’re not sure of the intent of the searcher. Are they looking for cheap new cars or used ones?! How would they react if they came to our website?”
  4. “Used SUV for sale” — “Look! These people practically have their whole wallet out. They seem to be deep inside the sales funnel, looking for a specific car brand. This keyword could have a lot of potential for us. But the low search volume, along with the current ranking on this one, is both intimidating and heartbreaking. Not sure if this keyword would really be worth all that effort.”

What’s the solution? Let’s jump right to it.

Experimenting with pay-per-click (PPC) ads

Yes, you can leverage paid ads to choose which keywords to target for your organic search strategy. The motive behind this is to get web traffic samples from each query, monitor each group’s behavior using performance indicators and finally compare them against each other to know the winner. This can potentially save you loads of time and money by avoiding the catastrophe of channeling all your efforts in something, only to find out later that it’s as worthless as 97% of your web traffic.

A few points for implementing the experiment

  1. To set up the experiment, we can create a campaign with multiple ad groups under it, each of which would show an ad for the keywords that we have targeted.bbTsdzF_f1FdwQtaZTrK-49wHS9Jp9UyofZYatLN
  2. While typing in the keywords in our AdWords ad groups, we’d want to make sure they are all set to “exact match” because we wouldn’t want our ads to show up for queries such as cheap car toys for sale… 🙂
  3. To replicate this experiment as closely as possible with the top organic listings, we want to set the bid strategy to “target search page location” to have a higher chance of coming up above the fold among the first few results.H5C12PAp_8RcZ1ce3jRFlNnmFk64EKS4abrYCiEx
  4. The ad title and description should also be written as if we’re writing text for the title tag and meta description for the page.
  5. Before doing the experiment, make sure conversion/event tracking is set up correctly and Google Analytics is linked to your AdWords account.
  6. Finally, set your daily budget, bidding strategy and delivery method. Depending on your business and search volume of keywords, you can set your ad delivery method to ‘standard’ or ‘accelerated’, meaning how quickly your ad would be shown each day. We have decided to run our experiment for eight days on accelerated ad delivery._bX6Hm1b7EaONVVkaZ3aEmvqrSrLRpYJfRkKfmDy

More advanced users can set up the experiment using the AdWords experiment tool.

The results

AdGroup / Keyword



Conversion Rate

Bounce Rate

Average Page Depth

Used car dealerships






Second hand cars






Cheap cars for sale






Used SUV for sale






We know the average CTR for the #1 position in the organic search results is estimated to be somewhere between 18% and 36%. Using Google Search Console, we can estimate the CTR of these keywords based on similar queries that are ranking high. After looking at our Google Search Console data, we have found our CTR to be approximately 22% for informative queries and 20% for transactional queries.

Using this data, we can now predict our organic traffic and conversions for all these keywords as follows:

Estimated organic traffic and conversions:


Search Volume

Web Traffic

Conversion Rate


Used car dealerships


16,280 (22% CTR)



Second hand cars


968 (22% CTR)



Cheap cars for sale


9,900 (20% CTR)



Used SUV for sale


2,420 (20% CTR)



We can see that the “cheap cars for sale” keyword would yield us the highest conversions due to the high search volume even though “used SUV for sale” seems to have a better conversion rate.

We have all our experiment results. But the question now is how accurate would these keyword performance metrics really be if we decided to go after them on a much larger scale on the organic side of things? Results from experiments like these are often subject to what is called sampling error, random noise, fluctuations, chance, etc. After all, we only have a small sample subset from such a vast pool of searches. Now the challenge is to separate the noise from the signal to get a more reliable and valid prediction.

But first, I must warn you: From this point onward, it’s just math.

If you just happen to be involved directly (or indirectly) in analytics, these tests might give you some nasty memories from school.

Don’t worry, I have included a spreadsheet that will compute all these calculations for you. All you need to do is feed it data. So, feel free to skip the next part and go straight to the statistical model if you feel uncomfortable with the math.

We will compare our sample conversion rate to a benchmark conversion rate to predict the probability that it would exceed the benchmark if we decided to move forward with a particular keyword for SEO.

For the nerds: We can do this using the Z-Test for binomial proportions. This test is eligible if we have a sample size that is large enough. There is no magic number to determine this, but a rule of thumb is a minimum of five successes and five failures. The formula for this is:


P1 = observed conversion rate, p = benchmark conversion rate, and n = sample size (number of visits or clicks).

So, for example, if we wanted to compare the sample conversion rate of “cheap cars for sale” against a benchmark of 1%, we would plug the values from the experiment in the spreadsheet calculator, which would give us a confidence level of 89%. This means that about 9 out of 10 times, the conversion rate of “cheap cars for sale: would exceed 1%. And we know a 1% conversion rate for this term equals 99 conversions (0.01 * 9900).

We can work this in reverse to find the benchmark rate for a 95% confidence interval using the “goal seek” tool in Excel. Just download the spreadsheet, open the “goal seek’”tool and type in these values exactly as they are.


After clicking “OK,” we get the following result for the “cheap cars for sale” keyword:


As you can see, the confidence level is very close to 95%. Thus, based on this statistical analysis, we can predict 95% of the time that our keyword “cheap cars for sale” would exceed a conversion rate of 0.86% (or 85 conversions). This is a reasonably high probability with only 1 in 20 times that it could be wrong. Now if we know the average revenue per conversion, we can estimate revenues from keywords, too! Assuming our average revenue per keyword is $1,500, this means 95% of the time we can expect to earn at least $127,500 (85 * $1,500) from the “cheap cars for sale” keyword with a 20% CTR and search volume of 49,500 per month.

Now, for bonus points we can also compute a probability based conversion range that would predict with 95% accuracy where the actual values would lie if we got organic web traffic from all four keywords.

We will use the adjusted Wald confidence interval formula for binomial proportions as it works better for both small and large sample sizes.

C.I=p(adj)+- z * sqrt (p(adj)(1-p(adj))/n(adj))
Where p(adj)=(x+(z^2)/2)(n+z^2)

Plugging in the values in our spreadsheet calculator, we get the following output for all 4 keywords that we had experimented on:


So, 95% of the time the actual conversion rate of our 3rd keyword “cheap cars for sale” would lie between the range of 0.7% – 3.29%. This means if we decided to go with the keyword “cheap cars for sale,” we would get somewhere between 69 and 326 organic conversions with a 20% average CTR. From the revenue calculations above, we can expect to earn somewhere between $103,500 and $489,000 per month.

Fascinating, right?

Two key points to remember when doing experiments like these:

  1. Never skip the statistical analysis — It would just make your predictions unreliable, inaccurate, and invalid altogether.
  2. Aim for a 95% confidence level, even though you can go for other confidence levels depending on the context.

“Without data you’re just another person with an opinion.”
-W. Edwards Deming

Now, please take a moment to comment below on how you go about predicting conversions for the organic channels you manage. Let us know if you agree/disagree with the analysis in this post and share any suggestions you may have for improving the process.

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What a Decade of Working in Digital Marketing Has Taught Me

Filed in Web Analytics | Web Site Planning | Web Strategy | Web Usability Leave a comment

Posted by Gab-Goldenberg

I’d like to share 10 lessons I wish someone had taught me when I started out in SEO and conversion rate optimization.

I recently celebrated 10 years in digital marketing and this is my way of giving back to the community. Thanks also to my fellow marketing consultants who shared illustrative anecdotes for this article.

#10: The details and technology change, but the principles remain the same

When I started doing SEO, you had people debating if content or links were more important. Guess what? They’re both still key elements of a sound SEO strategy.

Barry Schwartz and Gab Goldenberg at SMX Israel - photo courtesy of

One of the people who exemplifies this is Barry Schwartz (above, right; photo courtesy of Real Jerusalem Streets) of Search Engine Roundtable and Rustybrick web development fame.

Before anyone else clued in that the app stores were basically new search engines, he was already performing app store optimization, one of many experiences he’s shared with others.

OK, so there’s been a shift in social media usage from forums to Facebook groups. MySpace lost its lead. Instagram and Pinterest didn’t exist 10 years ago. But guess what you need to do on Facebook groups, Instagram, and Pinterest? Provide uniquely valuable content and get other users to talk it up and link to it.

So don’t hesitate to learn from older books that tell you about Myspace or direct mail. Just think about how you can apply those principles with the technology of today.

#9: Relationships are key and require constant maintenance

duncan-will-gab.jpgDuncan Morris and Will Critchlow of Distilled were some of the friendliest Moz community members I built relationships with in my early days in the industry. They warmly greeted me at my first conference ever, SMX West. Worried that I wouldn’t know anyone during the networking, they quickly allayed that concern.

Friends count for so much in this industry.

They have referred excellent quality leads to me, and with a warm intro to boot. They’ve shared my content, unique tactical ideas that aren’t blogged about anywhere, and simply been immensely good to me in so many ways.

I’m not the only one who feels this way.

“I have made some of my closest industry friends at conferences, and we are lucky that people in our industry are so willing to help others. Whenever I have a question about marketing, there is always someone I can find to ask on Skype, email, WhatsApp, Facebook or LinkedIn that can share insight based on their experiences,” says veteran SEO Eli Schwartz.

My friends at Shout hold this is to be a key part of their social media efforts:

“Sharing the content of those in your network can be of vast help in developing and maintaining relationships with influencers and prospects.”

Conversely, many relationships I formed withered over time. When I reached out to restart the relationship, a fair number of people declined to reconnect. Other relationships were lost because I had so neglected the relationship that I’d outright forgotten who many contacts were.

This is the biggest mistake I’ve made.

#8: Do one thing at a time and persevere past initial failures

Whenever I’ve tried to run multiple businesses, the results have always been mediocre. My repeated attempts at affiliate marketing have yielded lackluster revenue numbers. My main business has always been consulting, so affiliate marketing was just not something I had time to focus on.

“Focusing on one thing at a time will significantly increase your chance at achieving breakthroughs,” says Arik Liberman, CEO at Pagewiz. “The decision to grow Pagewiz as a self-funded start-up limited us to certain things, but it also taught us about our competitive advantages. Instead of spreading our marketing budget thin across multiple initiatives, we simply focused on landing page optimization. That focus allowed us to rapidly achieve a low cost-per-acquisition in a very competitive market.”

Here’s what I noticed as leading me to embarking on half-hearted projects, and how I finally overcame the bad habit:

  • I’d read an affiliate marketer’s blog where they described their success in juicy, tactical detail. I went off to see what I could do similarly. Then I’d do some research, figure out a traffic source (usually organic search), and start.
  • The same holds true outside of affiliate marketing. I read about someone’s success at drop shipping and thought, “Where can I source products, too?”

Nowadays, I do two things:

  • Avoid the blogs touting ways to make money online.
  • If I get the impulse to go start a new site, campaign, etc., I first ask myself, “Will I commit to improving and testing this over at least six months?” If the answer is that I’ll give up easily, then it’s not worth pursuing.

This is true of clients as well — if they can’t commit to at least six months, what’s the point of starting?

SEO Jordan Kasteler has an interesting approach that helps him stay focused:

“Do one thing at a time, and persevere past initial failures really hits home. One of the biggest contributors to the downfall of my former agency was being fractured, not focused. With so many opportunities available to us, we tried to do them all, but all were done sub-par. Had we focused, we’d have succeeded in our area of focus.”

#7: There’s no right marketing channel for everyone

Each channel has unique traits that make it right for different purposes. The point is to simply look at your goals and work backwards to see which channel(s) are better for achieving them.

Besides unique pros and cons, each channel also has its own loopholes and quirks. For example, Gmail’s introduction of the separate tabs for social and promotions did a lot to hurt the value of email lists. That’s a pretty big quirk.

Another type of quirk is a channel loophole. Loopholes in marketing channels exist today, existed yesterday, and will continue to exist indefinitely.

gab-hamlet.jpgMoz community member Hamlet Batista is very successful in the extremely competitive affiliate marketing niche.

There’s no use fretting over these quirks. Provided that you’re not harming others, it’s typically legal to benefit from them — and it can be perfectly moral in the right conditions.

#6: There are diminishing returns on reading blog posts and articles

If your main source of learning is blog posts, podcasts and the like, you’re reviewing more than you need to and missing out on learning new things.

You need structured and comprehensive content to help you in the areas that marketing-related content cannot.

This is where reading books, attending conferences, and networking are really valuable. Another approach if you prefer to stay with blogs is to curate the good stuff for yourself, as Bonnie Stefanick of Internet Marketing Ninjas shares:

“You can use a curated social media feed as a gateway for finding topics, authors, and good in-depth reads. I’ve used Twitter in the past and now Facebook for creating a great curated feed. I built up a followers list of authoritative people and continuously curate the feed — culling anyone from it that does not share anything useful or interesting. After some jiggering overt time, my feeds are now great live streams that only show me the most relevant interesting blogs and articles found by subject matter experts that I know, trust, and who are not sharing content just for the promotion. You’d be surprised how many smart people have written self-published books and other really great in-depth content that is under the radar!”

#5: Systems are the key to order and repeatability

Here are some questions that have come up in real life situations for myself and others in the absence of systems. They show you the value in creating systems, which are step-by-step recipes for achieving specific results, with clear metrics and hierarchy for accountability, within a clear timeframe.

  • Are you indispensable to the business’ successful function?
  • Why are you writing a new proposal from scratch? Again?
  • Why did that new employee not perform the service the way you intended it? Didn’t his CV list five years of experience doing exactly this?
  • How come you feel like dropping your clients and withdrawing into a shell?

The above are some of the sad, unfortunate symptoms of a business in a systems-vacuum crisis.

Without systems, there are no benchmark results to define success or failure.

Therefore, document how you do any given thing as if you were writing a how-to blog post. Include baseline metrics, who is accountable for running this process, who will hold them accountable, and how long it takes to complete the task.

#4: An incredible channel specialist or manager will not necessarily make an incredible agency founder

There’s a myth that if a channel specialist can drive lots of traffic to a site, then they can just as easily start their own sites or agency. While the myth boosts specialists’ salaries, it doesn’t correlate to reality.

In reality, an agency founder does much more than the specialist’s job. A CRO agency founder may do that for himself and clients, but likely also handles networking, HR, compensation, accounting, legal, marketing and sales, building and equipment maintenance, etc.

Realize that business skills are more important than technical skills and have a larger impact on a company’s success, says SEO expert Matt Antonino of Stack Digital.

“When I was a photographer I would often debate what makes the better business: someone who is amazing at photography but average at business, or someone who is phenomenal in business but an average photographer. Over the years I watched people come and go. Without fail, great photographers who didn’t understand business would go away, being greatly outmatched by fantastic businesspeople who got their processes right. There’s a lot more to a great business than doing a good [technical] job.”

#3: Learn the ropes on someone else’s dime and continue learning after you strike out on your own

When I started consulting on SEO, I naively thought that by learning the techniques really well, I’d be able to make a lot of money as a consultant.

I made lots of mistakes.

This wouldn’t be such a big deal if someone else was paying me a regular wage the whole time. As a consultant, however, I reaped not just 100% of the profits; I bore 100% of the costs for my errors. And there are far more than I care to recall.

jason-gab-carlos.jpgJason Englert (left to right), Gab Goldenberg and Carlos del Rio, founder of Agillian Search Marketing, who helped me score a free copy of the phenomenal book Web Design For ROI.

Be humble.

This is especially important if you’ve got less than five years of experience in the field, or if you’ve only worked as a channel specialist. Before striking out on your own, learn more of the business by asking for responsibility for key processes like lead generation, sales, project management, and managing staff.

You’ve got a lot more mistakes ahead of you, and it’s a lot safer and less stressful to make them while you’re getting a regular salary.

(Tip for newbie consultants: No one taught me how to close sales; I was terrible at it for ages. I’m very grateful to Jason Swenk for teaching me his system for doing so.)

#2: The Lean Startup movement cracked the code on market research

When I was studying in college, our textbooks on starting a small business had advice like “use Dun and Bradstreet databases to evaluate market size.”

Or do representative surveys, etc. Sure, because young cash-strapped entrepreneurs have got thousands of dollars to plunk down on a national phone survey.

Running Lean

Fortunately, you don’t need a lot of cash to do market research if you use Lean methodologies.

Spot a pattern in common pain points and demographics — and you’ve identified a market.

Repeat the interviewing process with mock attempts at selling your product — and you’ve really got insight into what you need to say and to whom.

So many small businesses fail because they skipped their market research. Accordingly, they think everyone is their market or don’t understand the benefit they provide their customers.

By creating a system which entrepreneurs can use to research their market with minimal capital investments, Lean methodology has made market research accessible to the masses. The increase in survival and success rates of small businesses will take a generation or more to measure in its full impact, yet anecdotal evidence already shows there is a revolution taking place.

If you’re starting a digital marketing agency, consider spending some time doing problem-solution interviews to better understand your market.

#1: There’s no substitute for passion (not even money)


One of the most passionate men who ever lived, Theodore Herzl. Photo via Hebrew University film archives.

If you don’t like what you’re doing, then no salary or client fees will ever be enough for you. Your boredom and self-loathing will catch up with you and you won’t see things through. I talked about that above with affiliate marketing, but it also affected my core business, SEO and conversion consulting.

I got fed up with the psychological toll of building links for small clients. The best links often come from manual requests, yet the payoff is delayed. (“When was the last time Google crawled this professor’s crusty research links page? What anchor text did he use?”)

So those with small budgets can’t afford quality work because it’s time-intensive and the results take a while to be seen. I worked with a number of smaller clients who wanted results quickly, and the depressing cycle of them being here today, gone tomorrow takes a psychological toll.

You feel like you suck or your clients suck or the field just sucks and think, “Why do I bother anyway?”

(Tip for small clients: Look for an SEO consultant specializing in your niche so that they can afford to maintain relationships that can be tapped for your benefit.)

Similarly, my blogging on my own site suffered largely as a result of my gradual loss of passion for the field.

On the one hand, being that much of my reading was focused on the blogosphere, I got bored when I discovered the diminishing marginal returns on reading blogs. I stopped learning, yet learning was the fuel for my passion. This, plus burnout, plus the above psychological fatigue with SEO did a lot to killing my passion.

As content marketer Paul Jacobson writes:

“If you’re not proud of it, don’t serve it. If you can’t do a good job, don’t take it on. If it’s going to distract you from the work that truly matters, pass.”

What most easily inspires great work that matters and that inspires pride? Stuff you’re passionate about.

What are you doing to ensure you stay passionate about your work?

Sign up for The Moz Top 10, a semimonthly mailer updating you on the top ten hottest pieces of SEO news, tips, and rad links uncovered by the Moz team. Think of it as your exclusive digest of stuff you don’t have time to hunt down but want to read!

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